Analysis of Operational Risk Losses in Water Conveyance Channels of Water Diversion Projects: The Case of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach)

Abstract

Influenced by climate change, topographic variations, and seasonal precipitation, the regional contradiction between water supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, posing a critical bottleneck restricting high-quality development in water-scarce areas. To address this issue, China has planned and constructed a series of water diversion projects. As long-distance large-scale systems exposed to multi-source risks including flood hazards, structural failure, and management inadequacy, making systematic risk assessment crucial. However, existing studies generally emphasize risk probability while neglecting risk losses, exhibiting a structural imbalance of “focusing on probability while downplaying consequences”, which makes it difficult to meet the comprehensive risk assessment requirements of inter-basin water diversion projects. Therefore, this study focuses on the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach), integrating channel structural damage and water supply area losses (industrial production losses and domestic water supply impacts). Characteristic risk loss indicators are selected, with evaluation criteria and weights determined via expert consultation. A risk loss index (LE) is proposed to assess the failure consequences of the project's water conveyance channels from an economic loss perspective.The results indicate that the LE is rather higher for the Qingshuihe–Zhaolou Reach (2.91) and Zhaolou–Shiliang Reach (3.17), owing to their high construction costs and large water supply scale. The Shiliang–Shiliang Reservoir Reach (2.35) shows a moderate LE, as its large supply coverage is offset by low construction costs. The Shiliang–Houchenlou Reach (1.81) has the lowest LE due to its low construction cost and small supply scale. This study offers technical support for future risk management of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project.