Markov Process Based Method Researching of Ship Maintenance Dock Demand Evaluation

Abstract

Prediction of support resources has always been the focus and difficulty for ship comprehensive support. In this paper, a prediction model and method are proposed for the support needs of ship maintenance docks. Markov process is introduced and applied to the forecasting of ship dock demand. By analyzing the system characteristics of ship dock use, a Markov forecasting model and evaluation index of dock demand are established, and the validity of the forecasting method is verified by case analysis. The calculation example shows that the prediction model can better reflect the influence of ship maintenance intensity and the number of docks on the system state, and the optimal dock requirements reflected by the evaluation index are in good agreement with the actual engineering. The research shows that the forecasting model of ship maintenance dock demand proposed in this paper can better reflect the physical process and engineering practice, and can provide theoretical support for decision analysis, which has good practical significance